Corrected August PCE 1.6%. Springtime in New York. Things That are Not a Thing
If Fed Chairman Powell had competed in the 100-yard dash in last month’s Paris Olympics, we would st...
In Which: Dr. John explains why it took a year to run his first regression and learned that you don’...
Corrected April inflation – CPI 1.9%, Core CPI 2.2%–is already at the Fed’s target. Next week’s PCE ...
In Which: Dr. John Tells You to Ignore the stagflation hysteria. Last week’s inflation reports were ...
In which Dr. John advises you to skip FOMC meetings but show up for earnings calls, suggests that as...
Chapter 1: In Which Dr. John Tries to Save the World by Trading Corn for Nukes and Fails—Again.
Summary: The headlines blasting the “hot” December CPI report were badly mistaken. After removing th...
Summary: A string of October inflation reports confirms that inflation has come down much faster tha...
Summary: Today, I had the opportunity to talk with CNBC Fast Money anchor Melissa Lee about what we ...
Summary: The headlines are dominated by geopolitical crises and human tragedy—Russia/Ukraine, Israel...
NOTE TO READERS: Stock and bond markets were spooked by the August CPI report (+0.6% for August, +3....
Warning, this article may only be interesting to serious geeks. If you are not a geek, the DELETE bu...
Yesterday, I posted a piece about inflation expectations and Treasury yields. I ended with a warning...
Note: When I wrote this explanation of budget deficits and interest rates in 2007 as a chapter of my...
Summary: Yesterday, I posted a piece arguing the Fed rate hike was a mistake and inflation and rates...
Summary: The Fed raised rates again for the 11th time in the past 16 months—I believe for the last t...
Summary: I believe the key to managing financial crises is to understand the how systems behave when...
Summary: I spoke with CNBC Fast Money anchor Melissa Lee today about what Treasury Secretary Janet Y...
Summary: You can’t blame pandemic-fatigued investors for being scared when we learned there was a co...
Summary: Forget Powell’s tough talk at last week’s FOMC press conference. Interest rates are heading...
Summary: I spoke with anchors Tyler Mathison and Kelly Evans along with CFR’s David Sacks to evaluat...
Summary: Misled by bad inflation data, the Fed raised rates too high, too fast, and drove the bankin...
Summary: Fed mistakes have brought the economy to edge of a credit crisis. Investors should be playi...
Warning: If you came here looking for a complete, logical explanation for the state of the global ec...
Summary: Late last year (the day before yesterday) I spoke with Brian Sullivan and AEI’s Derek Sciss...
Summary: On Monday, I spoke with Brian Sullivan, my friend of many years and Anchor of CNBC’s The Ex...
Summary (January 9, 2022): Now that the Fed has shown that it can at least talk tough, the speculati...
Summary: In this second video, I explain the mechanism through which inflation is transmitted to sto...
Summary: Last week, Chairman Powell announced the Fed will begin to “taper” its bond purchases by $1...
Summary: I was happy to see that the Tangible Assets piece I posted several days ago was viewed by a...
Summary: Wall Street has discovered real assets again. Maybe someday economics will too.
Summary: We know a lot more today than we did three months ago. We know the occupants of the White H...
Summary: Driving in a heavy fog is difficult, frightening and exhausting, as every investor knows to...
Summary: In my previous articles, I have stressed that sudden, violent, temporary events like earthq...
Summary: I posted these charts several months ago with a promise that I would write more to explain ...
Summary: Ricardo didn’t write what most economists think he did. Warning! This post is going to be p...
Summary: I am closing this article on Sunday night 3/15. By the time you read it I expect that marke...
October 14, 2019 – On Friday, the White House announced what they called “Phase One” of a trade deal...
August 8, 2019 – This week I spoke to 300 venture capital investors at Bloomberg’s Venture Future co...