Summary: Recent headlines about a possible meeting between Trump and Kim Jung Un are missing the point. The real story is why KJU changed his behavior, first with the South Korean government, then with the one-Korea team at the Olympics, now with overtures toward possible denuclearization and eventual peace treaty with South Korea. I see the fingerprints of Xi Jinping in these events. If I am right, there may be reasons to be a little more hopeful about the future of the Korean Peninsula. That would be good for all of us.
Chekhov's Rule: If you want to know about Bulgarians, you have to go to Bulgaria; you can't just read about them in the newspaper. So, when I wanted to learn about North Korea I got on a plane and went to Pyongyang.
I won't bore you will the whole story and there are parts of it I can't tell you or I'd have to kill you (really). Suffice it to say that I was lucky enough to be in the room for a series of deliberations, first in Beijing, then in Pyongyang, between North Korea and another head of state (not to be named) on an agenda very much like the one KJU is revealing today: direct meetings between North Korea and the U.S.; negotiations with South Korea over a peace treaty; and denuclearization. Although the effort failed, I was able to spend time with both Kim Jung Il (KJI) and his brother-in-law (KJU's uncle), who briefly ran the government in 2008-9 while KJI was incapacitated
I have never met KJU--he was attending a Swiss private school at the time. Before you ask, I was aware of the Logan Act, so I was careful to brief and get clearance form the NSA in both the 43 and 44 White House. I won't discuss the meetings here but I do want to give you a few visceral impressions I had in Pyongyang.
Rush Hour in Pyongyang
Observation 1: There's nobody home. I took the picture, above, of Pyongyang's main traffic artery from the window of my room at the Koryu Hotel, where they keep visiting foreigners. It was 4PM on a Tuesday afternoon. There is one car visible on the street. By then I wasn't surprised. While traveling the 20 miles from the airport to the city down a beautiful divided highway I had not seen a single car going in either direction, only people walking or riding bicycles down the side of the road. At night the city was dark--no electricity--except for the brightly lit Koryu Hotel.
6th Graders Cloning a Rabbit
Observation 2: North Korea is brutally poor. The year I first visited, more than 1 million people had died of starvation. But it wasn't brutal for everyone. Senior officials I met with--North Korea's ruling class--seemed to be doing just fine. And there were some areas where they spared no cost. In the picture above, I am visiting a sixth-grade biology class in the Special School, a boarding school where the government trains 'gifted children' from age five. The class had recently completed cloning a rabbit, the subject of the chart above my head. (I use this to encourage my children to do their homework.)
Kim Il Sung is part of Chinese History too
Observation 3: China and North Korea have history. Many Americans know that (1.3 million) Chinese soldiers fought on the side of NK in the Korean War. Few Americans know that Kim Il Sung (KIS, KSI's father and KJU's grandfather. In the picture above, KSI is on the right, KJI on the left) was a member of the Chinese Communist Party, fought against the Japanese in Manchuria and supported the Communist Army during the Chinese Revolution. This makes it difficult for Chinese officials to publicly criticise North Korean actions. From conversations with senior Chinese officials it is clear, however, that they do not want nuclear weapons in North Korea. Nor do they want a foreign (U.S.) attack on North Korea, separated from China's Liaoning Province only by the Yalu River, less than 100 miles from Shenyang. What they want is economic and political stability and to remain in power for a very long time. That means Kim has to change, or Kim has to go.
I have been anticipating Chinese intervention of one form or another for some time. It may be no coincidence that KJU's sudden change of heart corresponds to Xi Jinping's elevation. to unchallenged lifetime ruler of China. If that's true, we have reasons for optimism--Xi has the power to make a solution stick. I hope to learn more on this when I visit China in a few weeks. and will send you my notes when I return.